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Prediction for CME (2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-29T16:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31755/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and S/SW in STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption spanning from S30E10 to S20W40. Liftoff seen starting at about 2024-06-29T15:09Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304 after a data gap from 2024-06-29T13:05Z to 2024-06-29T17:25Z. || Possible arrival signature: The first of a series of complex arrival signatures seen at L1. A very small increase in B-total from 3nT to 4.6nT is seen starting at 2024-07-02T23:41Z, with corresponding rotation of B-field components. B-total begins to steadily increase over the next several hours until reaching a peak value of 6.41nT at 2024-07-03T15:30Z. A corresponding steady rotation of B-field components progresses over several hours until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. Temperature steadily decreases from about 80 K at 2024-07-02T22:38Z to about 50 K at 2024-07-02T23:41Z. Density remains very low, around 2cc, until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. This arrival is currently suspected to be the combined arrival of the filament eruption CME:2024-06-29T16:12Z and the glancing blow arrival of CME:2024-06-29T04:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-02T23:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-03T02:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/02:43
Radial velocity (km/s): 768 
Longitude (deg): 25W
Latitude (deg): S32
Half-angular width (deg): 42
Notes:

Lead Time: 25.68 hour(s)
Difference: -2.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-07-01T22:00Z

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